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:: A constitutional law blog by Scalia/Thomas fan David M. Wagner, M.A., J.D., Research Fellow, National Legal Foundation, and Teacher, Veritas Preparatory Academy. Opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect those of the NLF or Veritas. :: bloghome | E-mail me ::

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    :: Thursday, June 29, 2006 ::
    While we wait for the Hamdan decision(s), I'll venture some (probably uncontroversial) predictions.

    1. The controlling opinion will be written by Stevens, for the reasons given at SCOTUSblog here.

    2. It will be badly splintered.

    3. It will uphold military tribunals as a general matter, but will subject them to Due Process standards that will be determinable only by future SCOTUS decisionmaking.

    4. Those standards will be linked in some way to Geneva Common Article 3 (see SCOTUSblog's prediction here), which arguably is less incongruous than basing them on Mathews v. Eldridge, as the Court did in Hamdi, but will nonetheless be vague, and will leave doors open to the further direct application of international law by the Court, without implementing legislation from Congress.

    5. Scalia will file a yummy dissent on that point.

    :: David M. Wagner 9:33 AM [+] ::

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